How To Win The Football Pools Key Strategy Elements
Many pools players contend that the results of UK football pools matches (and Australian pools too) as featured on the pools coupons, are random.
I dont agree. Football teams play broadly to form, though not all results are in line with the form book, which is what makes it work for the football pools companies. How is form measured the last 5 games, 10 games; against better or worse teams? So, you need a performance system to start with.
Many people see roulette as a random gambling game, but of course it isnt, at least from the point of view of the casino. The House i.e. the casino – has a small edge, often defined in law (depending on country).
The fundamental approach to winning at the football pools is to make sure you have and edge that is, the odds of winning are biased (maybe only slightly) in your favour.
Of course, to win the jackpot you have to have 8 draws in a line and there should be only 8 draws on the coupon that week, and, of course, you should be the only one with that winning line that week. The odds on that are hugely long just selecting 8 draws from 16 matches has odds of 451 million to 1.
To manage the odds, we need to pick out the Home and Away certainties. That will reduce the list of potential draws. We use our performance measurement system to help us do that.
Then, plans and perms are important. These are how we enter multiple lines on the weekly entry, offering differing levels of coverage and guarantee. These have to be balanced against your budget and attitude to risk. There strong arguments between people who use plans (less than 100% guarantee), and those who use perms (100% guarantee). You pays your money and takes your choice.
Just as the casino has a long-run edge in roulette, it is important to see winning the UK football pools as a long run profit opportunity. You need to persevere. The one week you didnt do them could have been the week you might have won.
On the other hand, you need to choose your weeks when you are sure the form book applies. Do you think teams have consistent form across both league and Cup competitions? No way.
So, to maximise your long run edge on the pools, dont squander your stake on competitions where there is a lower probability of teams playing to form. Unless, of course, you want to do it for fun! After all, many punters play roulette just for fun, and dont seriously expect to win.
2010 Phil Marks
